Concluding Remarks

Upon starting this blog, I was fairly convinced that we were to experience tipping points, or have already reached one, within the Arctic system and that these posed a significant threat to the stability of our planet. This belief may have been as a result of media influence with all major news outlets noting the ‘impending doom spiral’ in the Arctic. However, upon the journey of the blog I found that the likelihood of a tipping point, especially in regards to sea ice, is extremely low. The counter-acting forces of the different systems supporting one another takes away the sea ice’s ability to experience a rapid decline. In terms of a regime shift it is almost unquestionable that we have experienced one in the Arctic ocean, a shift to ice-free summer exemplifies these changes, fortunately it can sustain itself in several climates and so may re-stabilise one it reaches seasonally ice free state. The biggest threat in the next several centuries comes from the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Arctic Meridional Overturning Circulation. As it transpires, a significance discharge of icebergs from the sheet can cause such a large freshwater influx it can cause the shutdown of the global ocean conveyor. The likelihood of this happening in our lifetime is minute, however, it may pose a threat to future generations.

As a planet it is imperative that we continue the plan set out in the Paris Agreement, or at least take the first steps towards achieving it. Halting the emissions freight train cannot happen overnight therefore CO2 levels will continue to rise in the atmosphere and global warming will continue, accelerating some of the processes discussed in this blog. Over the past two decades we as a global population have addressed our climate shortcomings with severity and immediacy, as evidenced by the dramatic reduction in aerosol emittance and progress in Asia, China went from having 16 of the top 20 polluted cities global in the late 1990’s to having none, today. Hopefully the new coconscious middle class that is emerging in India will bring about a similar pattern given 12 of the top 20 polluted cities are now in India, although as a nation it has some way to go before it emits anything like the US and other developed nations. The coming months will be telling in our reduction prospects given the current instability in the largest emitter on the planet it yet to be confirmed whether such progress will be continued.