The Polar Vortex?

Our understanding of Arctic Sea ice is forever incomplete. The extreme interconnectedness of the global system means that despite decades of research we are forever furthering our understanding. a recent example of this comes courtesy of David Barber, a Canadian scientist. In a TED Talk last year he presented the early basic ideas of the concept, alongside a good overall summary of the problems facing sea ice.  It is only now though that this new concept is of concern, a recent article in Nature Climate Change suggested that this year we could feel the effects of a weakening polar vortex significantly. Previously it has been linked to cooling in the Pacific mid west (2012), however, this Winter as a result of the continual weakening as a result of global warming melt sea ice its effects could be felt across Europe and Asia.

Figure 1: An animation depicting the traditional polar vortex. Credit: Washington Post

A strong polar vortex holds the cold air into the Arctic decreasing the air temperature in the Arctic and allowing for warmer temperatures further South, as visible in Figure 1. The now more unstable vortex is unable to function as it has done previously, as a result we in the UK, as well as North America, Northern Europe and Asia, could experience severe cooling in February. Although this may be inconvenient it isn't the end of the world. This would set a new precedent for the anomalies as previously it has only affected Northern USA.

Figure 2: The adjusted, weaker polar vortex sinking over the USA causing cooling through the US. Credit: Washington Post

The more significant impact can be found in the Arctic. This loss of cooler air will most likely contribute to a warmer surface air temperature in the Arctic. Although this is still a recent topic of inquiry so it is unsure as to how it will effect the Arctic this winter we can predict that it will maintain the seriously low rate of ice formation that has been so prevalent this winter. Due to the lack of research it is unclear how the polar vortex will shift however there is no suggestion of a tipping point instead the vortex has weakened steadily over time, however, the effects have onset rather immediately.